NFL Situation Spotlight - 89: Teams with a Straight-up Winning SU WP .600

One body that quickly becomes apparent when digging into NFL game information from the elapsed decade-and-a-half is the fact that underdogs have had a confident edge versus the spread.

In that 1994, there have only been 3 seasons where favourites in truth turned a income overall (1998, 2005 and 2007) while a complete of 8 seasons during this same generation period saw underdogs top the 52.4% break-even mark.

The popular loves to gamble on the perennial upper-echelon teams such as the Patriots and Colts, among others, and the overall record of favourites in the gone 14 years is a testament to this fact.

In spite of the inherent bias towards the regular teams, there are still quite a sporadic profitable situations in the NFL that play on good teamsâ "situations that have produced consistent winning records everyone year, regardless of if it's a season that is leaning in relation to favourites or underdogs in general.

The situation that is the focus of this article involves teams with a straight-up winning percentage >= .600 and happens to be a nifty 141-45 ATS since '94 (and 24-6 ATS in 2007 alone), when a few other related conditions are added into the mix.

Over the recent 14 years, teams with a SU WP >= .600 have been a losing proposition with a record of 1321-1327 ATS. Things only open to get interesting when we specify that this company must also have a higher Contingent Momentum Indicator than their current opponent.

For those not familiar with TMI's-they are a custom measurement that I keep developed to gauge recent team performance on both sides of the ball and they bullwork authentic well in conjunction with many of my full-season measurements of team skill.

A TMI above 0 is a marker of teams that have been playing fit in the past infrequent games, with a balanced rushing and passing attack, while a TMI below 0 indicates the opposite. This indicator normally has a market price that falls in the range of -20 to +20.

By adding this condition, we are essentially production definite that this team has been playing better of late, than their contemporary opponent.

Teams with a SU WP > .600 and a higher TMI are 772-687 (52.9%) ATSâ "good sufficiently for a profit of $1,630.00 with wagers of $110 to triumph back $100 on each game.

This trend still involves a portion of games and there are 2 other essential conditions that devoir to be added to whittle matters down to something else manageable.

The beginning is that the opponent of our winning group has a turn-over differential (TOD) of greater than 0.

Teams with a TOD above 0 will sometimes acquire an inflated won/loss record due to their clear-cut takeaway/giveaway ratio and as a result, they may be perceived more favorably by the betting public than they should be. This can lead to a footing where there is line value in betting against this team.

After adding this 3rd condition, the record of this trend improves immeasurably to 363-262 (58.1%) ATS by reason of 94, for a tidy profit of $7,480.00.

The last substantial condition involves the specification that this team has a season kick-off reinstate guideline (KRYF) of at least 22 yards, which happens to be the average for this particular stat. The write for this trend jumps to 226-130 (63.5%) ATS once this case is added.

KRYF is an curious statistic that crops up in a few of my situational trends. In this case, we are forming undeniable that this winning crew also has a strong chief teams unit on kick-off returns, which coupled with the other 3 factors, makes for a all-powerful trend.

Finally, there are a couple of smaller 'secondary' conditions that round out this situation. The biggest of these is the exclusion of any team that has a below average offense.

My fundamental ratings of team offence and defense are based on yards-per-play stats that enjoy been adjusted for the vigour of opponents faced. As an example: a team that has achieved an standard of 6.2 yards-per-pass play versus a group of opponents that normally grant 6.6 yards-per-pass play, will have a POF rating of -0.40 (6.6 - 6.2). In the case of this particular situation, I am eliminating those teams where ROF + POF (total offense) is less than 0. This effectively reduces the record for this trend to176-80 (68.8%) ATS.

The unabridged list of all 7 conditions involved with this seat and its associated stats are listed below.

(Notes: ASMR stands for Customary Spread Border Rating. A consummate rating indicates a trend that is stronger than principles versus the line, negativeâ "weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the coalition that compass been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For enhanced details, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Diversion Sheets Guide.)

Situational Trend #89 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Straight-up Winning % (SU WP) >= .600.
2) Team Momentum Indicator (TMI) > Opponents TMI.
3) Opponent Turn-Over Differential (TOD) > 0.
4) Kick-Off Return Yardage Average For (KRYF) > 22.

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Exclude Below Sample Offense (ROF + POF).
2) Exclude Punt Return Yardage Average For (PRYF) > 12.
3) Week < 20.

Situation Stats
ASMR: +0.0
Home%: 64.8
Dog%: 25.4
TDIS%: 87.5
WT%: 100.0
SPR: -3.90
Top Teams: PIT(22); NE(18); SD(17); DEN(16)

Situation Records
Overall (Since '94): 141-45 ATS
2007 Season: 24-6 ATS
2006 Season: 8-3 ATS
2005 Season: 18-7 ATS
2004 Season: 13-6 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2007 WK19â "NYG 21 DAL 17 (NYG +7) W
2007 WK19â "NE 31 JAC 20 (NE -13) L
2007 WK18â "SD 17 TEN 6 (SD -10) W

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