Simple NFL Systems - 65 90: SOV and Revenge in the Playoffs

Seeing as we are less than 2 weeks removed from one of the expanded exhilarant post-seasons to come along in recent fame (congrats to the NY Giants), it seems like an auspicious time to confer a couple of different playoff systems that both commence clover in 2007, one with a 5-1 ATS record and the other with a perfect 3-0 mark against the number.


Handicapping the post-season effectively requires a different prospect than the accepted season and while some of the trends that I employ between Sep and Dec are valid in Jan as well, most of my post-season selections are based on roughly 6 different trends that are particular to the playoffs only, all of which keep found great easy street in the past 14 years.

The 2 that testament be the locus of this article are quite lucid in essence and with a little proportions of effort on your part, they can become high-priced handicapping tools for you in the 2008 Playoffs.

The first one involves an affecting stat that I obtain construct to be very effective in predicting spread winners in the playoffs: Strength of Victory (SOV).

SOV is essentially the 'half-brother' of Strength of Schedule (SOS). The individual difference, is that, instead of totaling up the won/loss records of all opponents faced, we are one shot going to study at the won/loss record for the opponents that a team has defeated. This calculation will obviously take less effort for awful teams (Miami's SOV of 0.31 from 2007 doesn't take long to calculate) and also era for some of the better teams in the league.

A commendable exemplar from the 2007 season is Kansas Conurbation and their SOV of 0.47, which was achieved by defeating 4 opponents (Minnesota, San Diego, Cincinnati and Oakland) that finished the regular season with a combined record of 30-34.

The league sample for SOV is usually by oneself around 0.400 and Kansas City did carry on to tie for moment in this category, with Atlanta and New England (one of the infrequent statistical area's where the '07 Chiefs were near the top of the league).

So, what does SOV bear to do with successfully picking winners in the playoffs? It's no problem reallyâ "since 1994, playoff teams that have a lower SOV than their opponent, are 88-57 (60.7%) ATS for a tidy profit of $2,530.00 ($110 wagered to triumph back $100).

There is only one more significant condition that needs to be added to this trend and that is: the team with the lower SOV must also gain had a higher straight-up winning percentage in the previous season (LS WP).

Adding this 3rd and ending case creates a 40-6 ATS situation that was 5-1 in the '07 playoffs and has never been below the .500 mark versus the amount in the ended 14 years.

Interestingly enough, this latitude has a fairly even split between playing on home teams and road teams as well as favourites and underdogs. Almost two-thirds of teams in the confederation retain been involved in that 1994.

The next Playoff transaction I would enjoy to observe at (#90) as well relies on only 2 antithetic conditions (in appendix to the specification of looking at only Playoff games, of course). This trend has been nearly aces on account of 1994: 21-1 ATS, with it's onliest loss outlook in the 2003 post-season, when it went 5-1.

It's success is based on teams that are looking for 'revenge' as a result of a SU LOSS in the last game played against their current opponent, either in the current season, or one of the previous 2 seasons. I should further clarify that the team in this situation must posses also been a favourite in this preceding game, forming it an disordered bombshell for their in fashion opponent.

Conscientious a brief word approximately elapsed meetings: When looking at these games, I basically split them into 2 different classifications: LM2 and LM4. This specific trend uses the LM2 classification (the carry on meeting occurred in the current, or ultimate 2 seasons) while the LM4 type extends extremely back to include a previous meeting as far back as 4 seasons ago. Depending on the exact naked truth that is life addressed from a previous game, an LM4 grouping will sometimes be extra effective while in other cases, a game needs to be more recent and I therefore apply the LM2 type.

I act analyze a complete of 20 different stats from past meetings such as rushing and passing yardage, penalty yardage, interval of possession and turnovers, etc. But, it's normally the final score itself that provides the most insight into who will cover in a current game.

Past meetings that confine up as an 'upset' or that stop with a 4th Quarter Comeback or a Clutch Win are equitable the amiable of games that assent one team or the other looking forward to the next meeting where matters can be 'put right'.

And what better day of the year to exact some revenge than under the glare and spotlight of the NFL Playoffs? This is shown by the reality that by reason of 1994, Playoff teams that lost SU as a favourite versus their ongoing rival in their last meeting (LM2 classification) are outstanding versus the line: 32-10 (76.2%) ATS for a profit of $2,100 (wagering $110 to success back $100 on each game).

For those that yen to receipts things one operation further: if we add the condition that this teams season over/under average (OV%) is at least 50% (meaning, they have out over the symbol in at least half their games), the information for this situation becomes 21-1 (95.5%) ATS owing to 1994.

Here are all the details on both of these systems.

(Notes: ASMR stands for Customary Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negativeâ "weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this locale at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or exceptional and SPR is the guideline spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Merriment Sheets Guide.)

System #65 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Playoff Game.
2) Adversary has a higher season Power of Victory (SOV).
3) Last Seasons Winning Percentage (LS WP) greater than Opponent's LS WP.

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) None.

System Stats
ASMR: -0.2
Home%: 53.2
Dog%: 38.3
TDIS%: 62.5
WT%: 100.0
SPR: -1.22
Top Teams: SEA(6); NE(5); PHI(5); DEN(4)

System Records
Overall (Since '94): 40-6 ATS
2007 Season: 5-1 ATS
2006 Season: 3-1 ATS
2005 Season: 4-1 ATS
2004 Season: 4-0 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2007 WK20â "NE 21 SD 12 (SD +14) W
2007 WK19â "SD 28 IND 24 (SD +9) W
2007 WK19â "GB 42 SEA 20 (SEA +7) L

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