NFL Situation Spotlight - 51: Teams time to come off a Clutch Win CW

It should come as no suprise to yet the most novice of pro-football bettors that the outcome of a team's persist sport can have a forceful end on how they fare versus the number in their next contest. One specific area of interest in this regard concerns teams outlook off a Clutch Win.

A 'Clutch' winâ "by my definitionâ "is when a foursome tallies the final score of a game, in either the 4th quarter or overtime, stirring them from a tied or losing position, into a winning one.


Teams forthcoming off this so-called 'gut-check' bombshell are slightly worse-than-average versus the spread in the succeeding week (400-418 ATS by reason of '94) which in itself, is not a ecocnomic bearings when wagering at 10/11 odds.

The Clutch Win situation only becomes interesting when we add a second Relevant condition that specifies that the current rival of the team in examination has a worse-than-average Starting Field Position Standard Against (SFPA). The cooperative average for SFPA is normally around 30 and in this case, we are fascinated in teams that accept at-least a 31 average or higher.

SFPA basically tells us where a team's defense normally starts away on the field. Squads with a high SFPA usually have a higher-than-average number of interceptions going against them in their own half of the nature and besides level near the backside of the coalition in terms of how bushy-tailed they defend on kick-off and punt returns.

Teams with a formidable SFPA are as well more likely to be near the bottom of the league in the ATS Wins department, but, unlike teams that falter against the number due to an ineffective offense or defense, teams that annex been hurt by INT's and continued run-backs on opposing returns are much more likely to bounce back in forthcoming games and bring the astute bettor with considerable line-value.

Combining this line-value with a team in position for a possible let-down (due to the Clutch gain factor) gives us a formidable contravening seat that is 52-110 (32.1%) ATS in that 1994 and 3-8 ATS so far in 2007!

Rounding out this situation are 2 Secondary conditions which weed out opponents with a faint hurry defence (evidenced by a high 1st Quarter Rush % against) and eliminates games in the post-season or Week 17.

When it comes to situational handicapping, it's always capital to exertion with trends that have as few conditions as likely and this one is very competent with lone 4. Here are all the details:

(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Room Rating. A pleasant rating indicates a trend that is stronger than sample versus the line, negativeâ "weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that hog been involved in this footing at one clock or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the principles spread for teams in this situation. For else details, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

Situational Trend #51 Abstract (Last Updated: Jan 15th, 2008)

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Last Game Clutch Win (CW).
2) Enemy Starting Field Position Customary Against (SFPA) > 31.

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Opponent 1st Quarter Rush% Against (Q1R%A) <= 50.
2) Before Week 17.

Situation Stats
ASMR: +0.5
Home%: 44.8
Dog%: 51.2
TDIS%: 100.0
WT%: 71.2
SPR: -0.43
Top Teams: CHI(7); CLE(7); DAL(7); NYG(6)

Situation Records
Overall (Since '94): 27-92 ATS
2007 Season: 9-14 ATS
2006 Season: 2-9 ATS
2005 Season: 5-12 ATS
2004 Season: 2-7 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2007 WK16â "WAS 32 MIN 21 (MIN -6.5) L
2007 WK16â "IND 38 HOU 15 (IND -7) W
2007 WK15â "PHI 10 DAL 6 (DAL -10) L

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