No problem NFL Systems - 49: The Super Bowl effect

After studying and cataloguing hundreds of contrasting NFL situational trends over the past decade or-so, I have learned that there are actually only 3 distinct types of situations that effectively beat the spread. They each have the energy to expose opportunities for profit versus the lineâ "they equitable do so in further antithetic ways.

The first and most common sort (which accounts for the majority of situations that I employ) covers situations that are based on mathematical measurements of specific areas of bunch play, which work towards revealing instances where one side may have an overhaul over another after the point spread is factored in. Examples of this would involve trends based primarily on Rush Offense Ratings, Team Momentum Indicators, or any other statistical measurement of gang skill.

The 2nd group involves situations that isolate instances where the betting public is groove off with their assessment of team strength and an opportunity for income based on the resulting 'skewed' contour may be present. Many of these situations grindstone their voodoo in the early atom of the season, when bettors are all the more placing wagers based on what teams did last season, as opposed to what they are exhibiting in the front sporadic weeks of the current season.

The 3rd and final category of situations that I employ can be classed as 'let-down' or 'momentum' situations and this is where my measure in 'Armchair Psychology', as I close to call it, comes in handy.

'Momentum' is both a catch-all phrase and sports clichà that has been so overused in the gone few decades, it's adamantine to give it much credence, expressly considering that 99% of the time the locution is trotted out (most commonly as part of the mindless on-air commentary of network-TV NFL broadcasts), the body that has been pegged as having the 'so-called' string in momentum, is in fact, no augmented viable to cover the spread than their opponent.

The overuse and 'dumbing down' of terms such as 'momentum' and it's polar opposite: the 'let-down' situation, does obscure the fact that there are yet multifold proven situations that exist in the NFL where teams may be in a position to shape on a recent positive event, or, maybe not give forth their elite endeavor due to certain factors working against them.

This category of situations should come with a prominent warning label thoughâ "trends based on 'Armchair Psychology' are truly the hardest to prove finished subjective debate and bettors who handicap games purely on the target of these types of situations can find themselves on a slippery slope indeed.

The critical lesson here is that even the most logical-sounding situations that may have had consummation in the past (one that comes to mind concerns teams facing an inferior non-divisional antagonist at home in a pastime that is sandwiched in between 2 divisional road meetings), may much simply be the product of chance alone, or a combination of luck and diverse other factors that get cipher to do with the logic of the specific situation itself.

Despite the implied pitfalls involved with 'Category 3' trends, I close even promote a wide assortment of them on a weekly basis. With this category, I always strive to bag only 2-4 Primary conditions and not too many 'tighteners' (Secondary conditions). The Muzzle entrance seems to provide the best chance of future success when working with these highly subjective trends.

It should come as no suprise then, that the specific locale I would prize to observe at for this article is very incomplex in nature (this is a 'Simple Systems' article, after all). Its premise is built on how teams perform in an upcoming game, when they happen to be facing the defending Super-Bowl winner in the game immediately after.

It's not infrequent for teams to gun beyond their current opponent in certain circumstances, exclusively provided they are a company with a winning record that may be looking to create a statement versus latest years champion.

When we take the above Leading condition and add in the stipulation that the current dissenter is coming off a Clutch Win (a Clutch win occurs when a team tallies the final score of the game, in either the 4th quarter or overtime, stirring them from a tied or losing position, into a winning one), we are left with a action that has produced a record of 2-17 ATS for the band in issue since 1994.

All the details for this transaction are listed below. You will notice that it does play on winning teams enhanced often than not (57.1% of the time) and has involved 16 different teams since 1994â "which is excellent when you consider that only just over 20 games posses met its criteria (this includes 'pushes' which are not shown in the overall record of 2-17 ATS).

(Notes: ASMR stands for Standard Spread Margin Rating. A positive assessing indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negativeâ "weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the cooperative that have been involved in this locality at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or preferable and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For expanded details, please consult Leaf 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

System #49 Summary (Last Updated: January 15th, 2008)

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Team is playing Last Seasons Super-Bowl winner in their Consequent Game.
2) Ongoing Opponent is coming off a Clutch Win.

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) None.

System Stats
ASMR: -2.5
Home%: 57.1
Dog%: 38.1
TDIS%: 50.0
WT%: 57.1
SPR: -0.38
Top Teams: MIA(3); ATL(2); IND(2); NYG(2)

System Records
Overall (Since '94): 2-17 ATS
2007 Season: 0-0 ATS
2006 Season: 0-2 ATS
2005 Season: 0-1 ATS
2004 Season: 0-1 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2006 WK12â "DAL 38 TB 10 (TB +11) L
2006 WK4â "BAL 16 SD 13 (SD -2.5) L
2005 WK9â "CHI 20 NO 17 (NO +3) P

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