NFL Situation Highlight - 46: Teams with a high Pass Defense Evaluating

Provided someone where to interrogate me: "Is their one specific NFL statistic that you would group as indispensable when working against the point spread"? It wouldn't take me long to respond. The answerâ "Pass Defense ratings, or PDE for short.

This may come as a surprise to those purists who believe that the NFL is built on the rushing game, but yes, how blooming a company defends against the pass is a vast predictor of future results and this article will scout how this stat can directly authority the mind-set and subsequent betting actions of the 'Average-Joe' bettor, under the right circumstances.

The most efficacious idea to measure the endowment of a teams Pass Defense (as far as handicapping versus the mark spread is concerned) is by using Yards-per-Play averages, adjusted for the strength of Pass Offenses a team has faced during the season.

As an example: going into the ultimate week of the 2006 season, Chicago ranked 2nd in the league with a PDE Classifying of +0.75. This was calculated by beguiling Chicago's Yards-per-Pass play standard on defense (4.77) and subtracting it from how bushy-tailed their pool of opponents passed the ball themselves (5.52 Yards-per-Pass play on offense). 5.52 - 4.77 = +0.75. It should be noted that, whether I am calculating an annoying rating, or defensiveâ "a consummate number always indicates a team that is exceptional than average, while a negative assessing indicates a team that is performing below average in the category we are looking at.

Now that I posses explained the math, what are the potential uses for this stat? One particular situation where PDE shows its predictive capacity is when the team in investigation has a PDE adjudjing > +0.50 and is coming off a game in which they shut down their opponents ground attack.

The public loves to venture on teams with tough pass defences and as a result, since 1994, teams with a PDE rating > +0.50 are a dismal 706-789 (47.2%) ATS.

This is the first Valuable example for this particular situation. The 2nd is that our focus gang is future off a diversion in which they community their enemy to less than 75 rushing yards. After this stipulation, the record instanter becomes167-260 (39.1%) ATS which would have meant a profit of $7630 betting against this line-up with $110 wagers at 10/11 odds.

If we build another Influential condition that specifies our team in investigation also regional their last opposition to less than 60 complete vexing playsâ "we point up with a brutally compelling situational trend that is 73-157 (31.7%) ATS because 1994.

Teams with tough pass defenses that are time to come off a strong defensive effortâ "especially in regards to rushing yards againstâ "create a spot that is solid for even seasoned handicappers to settle off of. How can you not coextensive a faction that appears to be impenetrable both in the air and on the ground?

Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay have fallen cat's paw to this setting the most over the preceding 13 seasons with Denver and Baltimore not far behind. This particular trend is fit distributed, however, as 93.8% of teams in the band have been involved at one period or another thanks to '94.

There are a handful of Secondary conditions that round out this situation. Teams looking to invest in even after a behind field-goal beat them in a preceding meeting are not included, as well as games where the opponent is coming in off a Straight-Up Dog win. The full details are below.

(Notes: ASMR stands for Morals Spread Space Rating. A positive grading indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negativeâ "weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the confederation that have been involved in this situation at one bout or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or more desirable and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For else details, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Sport Sheets Guide.)

Situational Trend #46 Abstract (Last Updated: Jan 15th, 2008)

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Pass Defence Rating (PDE) > +0.50.
2) Behind amusement Rushing Yards Against (RYA) < 75.
3) Last game Total Plays Against (TPA) < 60.

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Exclude Clutch FG Loss in Last Meeting (LM4).
2) Over Under (OU) < 44 in the Current Game.
3) Opponent not off a SU Dog win.

Situation Stats
ASMR: -0.9
Home%: 42.7
Dog%: 32.7
TDIS%: 96.9
WT%: 84.2
SPR: -2.63
Top Teams: PIT(20); TB(14); DEN(13); BAL(12)

Situation Records
Overall (Since '94): 32-127 ATS
2007 Season: 3-10 ATS
2006 Season: 4-13 ATS
2005 Season: 1-9 ATS
2004 Season: 5-11 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2007 WK18â "SD 17 TEN 6 (TEN +10) L
2007 WK18â "SEA 35 WAS 14 (WAS +3.5) L
2007 WK17â "TEN 16 IND 10 (IND +5.5) L

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