NFL Entertainment Analysis: 3 Reasons to Bet on Oakland 9.5 in Week 3

This particular match is interesting for the actuality that both Buffalo and Oakland were favored to cover the spread in seperate high-percentage plays latest week, and both ended up doing aloof that, ATS and straight-up.

This week, it appears that Buffalo will struggle versus an inflated 9 1/2 point spread; however, based on a number of reasons outlined below and while I am not bold sufficiently to call an outright win for the Raiders, all signs end to a tightly fought contest.

So, why are the Bills facing credible trouble versus the spread this week?

Reason #1
Oakland finds themselves in an absorbing Week 3 momentum situation that involves teams that lost their first game of the season, followed by a gain in Week 2, and are like now either 1st or 2nd in their division (the Raiders are currently in 2nd in the AFC West, behind Denver at 2-0).

Historically, teams ride their Week 2 turn-around to a spread-victory in Week 3 and they have been 29-3 ATS in that 1994 and 7-1 ATS in the past 3 seasons.

Reason #2
Before Week 15 of the season, teams with a Big Rush Yardage % For of > 50 (58.7% of Oakland's rushing yardage has come on fall plays of 10 or extra yards so far) that again include a Play Book Execution Penalty Guideline Against of <= 1.0 per-game (the Raiders are actually averaging 1.0), are an astounding 128-60 ATS because 2001.

It's a fact: teams that can burned opposing defenses with long gains on the ground (evidenced with a high BRY%F) that extremely grip a low number of penalty calls related to the 'break-down' of abusive plays (i.e., ineligible receivers, extremely diverse men on the field, etc.), are an exceptional bet against the spread, 7 years in a row.

Reason #3
Teams coming off a 4th Quarter Comeback (a game where a team that was losing at the start of the 4th quarter, came back to win SU) that gave up at least 30 Passing Attempts in this preceding game, AND are currently facing an adversary with a Season Turn-over Differential of <= 0.5; happen to be a brutal 27-97 ATS since 1994 and 2-22 ATS in the former 3 seasons alone.

Buffalo is in honest this spot, after opening the 4th quarter last week at Jacksonville, down 13-10, and coming away with the 20-16 victory. It's a classic let-down site that testament not be helping the Bill's basis this Sunday.

For and information on these trends, and a total of 6 pages stuffed with every team statistic imaginable, please click on the Diversion Folio link below.

Oakland's Confidence Percentage for covering the spread in this pastime is: 66%

Oakland Raiders (+9.5) at Buffalo Bills

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